CHALLENGE OF HYBRID WARFARE IN ASIA

Hybrid warfare has seemingly emerged as a major issue of discussion in most of the contemporary conferences and research articles on global defence. The concept and the debate around hybrid war is not a new phenomena. But today with the development of hybrid technology, hybrid warfare is dominating the world conflicts. Hybrid war involves irregular wars, illegal ransom, cyber attacks, propaganda for subversion etc. Even international law will become a tool in hybrid battlefield. So it is clear that today's war doesn't give the good old picture of formal armies fighting in a particular battleground! Hackers, war propagandists, weapons smugglers, Religious heads are the indispensable parts of Hybrid war!  This new and dangerous development opened up new possibilities in conflict ridden areas. The way Russia handled Ukraine issue and Islamic State's fighting techniques in Syria are the best examples for hybrid war!

Analysts in international affairs warned Asia, the largest continent of the world, is witnessing hybrid warfare. Advanced studies provided proofs that Asia is already under the strong clutches of Hybrid warfare. Douglas Ollivent, a Senior National Securities Fellow opined conditions like Ethnic conflicts in Asia, border disputes, lack of rule of law are more than enough to create and foster hybrid war in Myanmar, Pakistan, Thailand and other Asian countries. Earlier only national militaries had the privilege to some warfare techniques. Shifting such major military capabilities,  to irregular combat groups including terrorists is also a significant feature of hybrid war! Mainstream military weapons like intercontinental ballistic missiles in the hands of terror groups is a threat to world peace.

Hybrid warfare in Asia and disturbed relations of India with neighbouring China and Pakistan are new challenges to Indian defence strategy. Terror outfits in Pakistan or China can use those techniques, once used by Russian backed terrorists or Hezbollah terrorists. China supported Naxal activities in Northeast India have enough space to turn itself into hybrid conflict. The fact that China is one of the leading powers in cyber and robotics technology made Indian security more vulnerable and insecure.

International law considers armed aggression crossing national boundaries as the center concept of war. Same logic will be applicable even in the case of identifying the aggressor. Hybrid war strategy bypasses all international laws because, there is no need to cross the borders to achieve subversion activities. For instance, China can train and arm pirate groups to create tensions in South China Sea. Pirates induced by China may attack ships and disturb trade routes. Finally China will increase the presence of Chinese forces based on the claim to control pirates. Increased Chinese presence, definitely result in unquietness in Asia. But China can defend it's intentions easily without restricting itself to the norms of international law! World has to agree that China achieved considerable amount of progress in cyber technology. China created a separate department to monitor cyber attacks and other related issues. In a shocking fact 'South China Sea' is the most targeted region in cyber attacks!

"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting." Says evergreen political strategist Sun Tzu. These words are really relevant in the reign of hybrid warfare specially in defending India. Since independence Indian defence forces tackled number of problems. But now a new phenomena of hybrid warfare questioning the defense of India. India should be ready to handle these new proxy wars and hybrid battlefield.

(This article was published in Central Chronicle Newsapaper on 4 March 2017)

      KEERTHIRAJ (prof.keerthiraj@gmail.com)

      

International Relations and Political Science

Alliance University, Bengaluru

Bannon, Battlefield and Bhagavad Gita

Donald Trump's strategic advisor Steve Bannon expressed his love towards the Bhagavad Gita. The worldview of Bannon represents the views of Bhagavd Gita. This is not the first time, Bhagavad Gita attracted the attention foreigners, in fact Hindu scriptures attracted the attention of Western scientists and thinkers over the past two centuries. Britain's most famous philosopher Aldous Huxley's mind was filled with the ideas of Bhagavad Gita, when he wrote ‘Brave New World’. Heinrich Himmler, the Nazi Germany's influential personality also openly admitted that he got influenced by teachings of the Gita. In addition to this, Robert Oppenheimer’s famous quote after the first successful test of nuclear device" "Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds." In reality, Oppenheimer uttered the 32^nd verse of Bhagavad Gita’s 11^th chapter!

Even though, Bhagavad Gita is a part of the epic Mahabharata, today Gita almost enjoys a separate entity because of its significance. Arjuna lost his heart to fight, when he saw his own relatives on enemy side, Lord Krishna preached, what is Dharma and why Arjuna should fight. It is not just a dialogue between Lord Krishna and Arjuna, but it is a light to guide the world with the spirit of 'Dharma' and ‘Righteousness’. This concept of Dharma influenced many leading personalities in both East and western world. Trump's strategic advisor is a new addition to this long list.

Most of the discussions and speeches of Bannon, stressed the concept of 'Dharma' since years. It is hard to find an alternative English word to represent the exact meaning of the word 'Dharma'. Sometimes it means the doing right things, sometimes as a duty and sometimes it may seem doing justice to our work. It includes all the above mentioned meanings and more than that perception. According to Bhagavad Gita, each person has his own ‘Dharma’ based on his nature and he is bound by some social commitments to adhere to it. In the eighteenth chapter, 47^th verse of the Gita explains it is better to follow your ‘Dharma’ imperfectly than performing ‘Para Dharma’ (Others Dharma) perfectly. This logic of Gita influenced the thought process of Bannon to a large extent. You can observe all the Hindu Scriptures have something in common. All the characters of Hindu Scriptures are either fighting for ‘Dharma’ or fighting against it. So everyone is a part of this struggle and Gita considers the whole world as a battlefield to protect Dharma. This concept of ‘Dharma’ might be in the form of Social justice, political interest, military conflict and so on. The thought of Universal war and the world as a battlefield played major role in rationalizing Bannon’s thoughts

Steve Bannon believes the world, especially the western society is in the verge of moral and economic decline. Western world lacks the traditional values and that in turn lead western society towards destruction. Bannon’s concern is the source of all the problems western world facing today is a result of lack of ‘Dharma’. Bannon treats the war of Kurukshetra, the most important part of the Mahabharata, not as mere Pandava-Kauravas struggle for Land, but as a witness to divine ideals, preserved for centuries.

The fourth chapter of the Bhagavad Gita, Sri Krishna assures:

“Whenever and wherever there is a decline in dharma….and a predominant rise of irreligion — at that time I descend Myself, to deliver the pious and to annihilate the miscreants, as well as to reestablish the principles of religion, I Myself appear, millennium after millennium.”

This prophetic reflection of the world-famous lines from the Bhagavad Gita can be found in the thoughts of Bannon. Gita preaches to protect ‘Dharma’ at any cost. If we compare the ideas of Gita to the words of Bannon, " “We’re at the very beginning stages of a very brutal and bloody conflict…fight for our beliefs against this new barbarity that’s starting, that will completely eradicate everything that we’ve been bequeathed over the last 2,000, 2,500 years” Bannon is a man who describes himself as a weapon to achieve major and universal objective.

There are many voices for and against Bannon’s worldview. Some allege Bannon as a warmonger and always in love with war. It is true that Bannon is greatly influenced by two Sun Tzu’s ‘Art of War’ and Hindu text ‘Bhagavad Gita’. And to some extent he used Huntington’s concept of ‘Clash of civilisations’. Being a chief strategic advisor to US president is not a joke and Bannon can affect the world order to a large extent. Let us hope, the best will come out in the future.

(This article was published in Central Chronicle News paper on 13 February 2017)

      KEERTHIRAJ (prof.keerthiraj@gmail.com)

      

International Relations and Political Science

Alliance University, Bengaluru

Indo-US Partnership: A Panacea to Chinese Aggression?

Even though American allies in this region are economically sound, they are not in a position to counter China, compared to China's military and diplomatic power. For all these reasons, the focus of US foreign policy experts increasingly turning towards India, as a potential power ti counter Chinese dragon.

-  Keerthiraj

The increasing Chinese military influence in the Asia-Pacific region reaffirmed that no country in this region has enough will power to counter the warmongering dragon. China aggressively achieved enmity with all the countries in its neighbourhood, even challenged US and other major powers, creating a common feeling that no one can do any thing against China. Recently, Chinese leaders warned America to expect a full pledged war if Americans interfered in South and East China seas. Both America and India have their own interests in containing Chinese power. On the one hand, China's aggressive attitude is the question of leadership and strategic balance for America, on the other hand, India has some key national security threats from China.

American allies in the Asia-Pacific region including Philippines, Japan, Australia, Singapore and other countries concerned excessively towards Chinese aggression. Even though American allies in this region are economically sound, they are not in a position to counter China, compared to China's military and diplomatic power. For all these reasons, the focus of US foreign policy experts increasingly turning towards India, as a potential power ti counter Chinese dragon. American policy experts are convinced that, India is growing increasingly confident in international politics is the only available choice to re balance Asia-pacific. The two largest democracies in the world are ready to establish higher levels of diplomatic and military relations. The current national interests of India and America have a lot of similarities. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is slowly moving out of the Non-Aligned policy and exposing itself confidently in the global politics. Still, India is not completely comfortable with US, Delhi policy makers understood it is important to strengthen Washington-Delhi defence contracts in order to maintain the balance in Indo-pacific region.

United States changed its earlier gesture of supporting Pakistan and criticising India. The Indian Army crossed the line of Control and destroyed some terrorist bases in response to Pakistan's back support to terror activities in Indian land. After this incident Pakistan firmly expected America to condemn the act of India. But this expectation of Pakistan met with disillusionment and US just advised both the countries to settle the long term dispute. This is a significant shift of US policy in favour of India and it responded with a 'Politically Correct' statement! Through this incident US convincingly portrayed India instead of Pakistan as the priority of its foreign policy For decades, American the aid to Pakistan proved US can get nothing more than backstabbing by Pakistan. Now it is the time to realise historical values of nations are the pillars of long-standing political friendship and not the short-term selfish political opportunities

The challenge, India facing of today from China is different from the challenges of 1962. China threatened only northern borders of India In 1962 Indo-China war, but Chinese naval power was not so sophisticated. But today, China has a strong naval force, built up in a systematic manner. Strategically, China has occupied Gwadar port in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Chittagong in Bangladesh and other naval bases in an attempt to surround India. This Chinese tactic of surrounding India and making India vulnerable to attack from all the directions, is popularly known as 'String of Pearls Policy'! In addition to this China is trying to spread its sphere of influence in Indian Ocean, particularly areas, which are considered as India's traditional zone of influence. It is evident that China has supported Pakistan against India continuously. Thus, to counter this offensive neighbourhood, India is in a need of a strong friend like US. There has never been a greater need for mutual cooperation between the United States and India and it is going to be a well deserved  strategic relationship for both the countries.

Increasing relevance of India as an influential force in global politics, has become pretty digest for China. To divert the attention of India China is using Pakistan and creating tensions at the borders of India! China's stand over  over Arunachal Pradesh made Indo-China relations further complicated. India gave shelter to Dalai Lama, despite of China's opposition and other issues added to the tension. India is slowly coming out of 'diplomatic reservedness' and looks more confident than ever. It is not surprising, even if India planned a joint strategic plan with America against China. 

There are some limitations for full pledged diplomatic relations of the US and India. In the past, the differences of opinion between the US and India, as well as the Indian stand over some arrangements of international system, resulted in US sanctions imposed on India. Today, these sanctions are restricting American technology transfer to India and higher level of defence co-operation between these countries. US has to set right some of the paper works regarding this and this process has already begun to develop cooperation with India. As American foreign policy experts keen to develop diplomatic ties with India, Asia-Pacific geopolitics opened new opportunities to contain China and also sting Pakistan for its mischief.

(This article was published in Central Chronicle News paper on 18 January 2017)

      KEERTHIRAJ (prof.keerthiraj@gmail.com)

      

International Relations and Political Science

Alliance University, Bengaluru