NEPAL REGIME CHANGE: NEW HOPE IN INDO-NEPAL TIES

We can’t neglect the role of neighboring countries in the success of Indian foreign policy. Specially, a Nepali government more interested towards China, always be a prime danger for India’s regional interest and security.

-          Keerthiraj

(Assistant Professor in Alliance University)

The Himalayan country Nepal is once again going through political transition. Pushpa Kamal Dahal, popularly known as Prachanda was elected as the Prime Minister of Nepal, replacing Khadga Prasad Oli.  This is for the second time Prachanda will be serving as the Prime Minister of Nepal. A new ray of hope emerged in India- Nepal relations with this change in the politics of Nepali politics. Since last year, India and Nepal diplomatic relations has been in a state of confusion and decline. But newly elected Nepali PM Prachanda took some rational decisions to correct the mistakes of past and sent special envoys to India and China.

India and Nepal are more than just neighboring countries. They have much reason to remain as close allies and this is proved by history. Since decades, India’s concern and commitments towards Nepali defense elevated Indo-Nepal relations to higher levels. Of course Nepal is a landlocked country, but in a true sense it is Indian land locked country as it shares most of the boundaries with India. On the other hand, Himalayan mountain range including the great Mount Everest separates Nepal from China. Even during crises times India was there with Nepal like an elder brother. When Nepal suffered a continuous Maoist war since 1996, only Indian interference convinced Maoist party and other national parties to end the war with 12 points agreement in 2004. But everything went wrong when Nepal adopted a new constitution on 19th September 2015. Nepal government and the new constitution neglected the protests of Madeshi, Tharu and other ethnical communities living in border areas. India also raised serious concerns about these ethnic issues.

Madeshi community has a distinct cultural identity and it is clear that they are excluded by Nepali mainstream society. Madeshis’ hope about new constitution perished like a moth! Boundary lines of Madeshi provinces, citizenship problems of Madeshis left unaddressed.  New constitution of Nepal became deaf and dumb to the problems of Madeshi community. The supreme text of the nation remains silent regarding political and cultural hegemony of mainstream Nepali society over their own people living in border areas. Nepali political elites also sidelined the major demand of this oppressed community. Naturally India backed the movement of Madeshis and advised the government of Nepal to rectify the mistakes of new constitution. This moral responsibility of India was intentionally misinterpreted and misunderstood by Nepal leaders. Then Nepali Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Oli chose China for his first foreign visit, it became crystal clear that both symbolically and practically Nepal avoided India.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi openly condemned new Nepali constitution. And a series of statements by Indian Ministry of External affairs backed the opinion of Modi. Later days witnessed dark period of Indo-Nepal relations including an Indian blockade against Nepal, Chinese hold over Nepal etc. While unofficial Indian blockade against Nepal continued, Nepal faced an earthquake. During this natural disaster, again India extended helping hands to Nepal in the name of ‘Operation Maitri’.  Unfortunately, some considered this humanitarian effort by India as an attempt to establish hegemony in Nepal. Even Nepali government held the same view and disrespected moral interest of India.

Indian diplomats and strategy experts worried when a traditional ally of India continuously lurching towards China. We can’t neglect the role of neighboring countries in the success of Indian foreign policy. Specially, a Nepali government more interested towards China, always be a prime danger for India’s regional interest and security. No one can deny the possibility of China using Nepal to achieve domination in South Asia. We should remember China already has doors to South Asian politics through Pakistan. 2014 China (an observer in SAARC) tried to push its interest to be a permanent member state in SAARC through Nepal!

Recent political developments in Nepal removed Khadga Prasad Oli from power and established Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) as Prime Minister. Newly elected PM of Nepal sent Deputy PM Bimalendra Nidhi as a special envoy to India. This is tactical step taken by Prachanda to reestablish lost relations of India and Nepal. During his visit to India Nidhi expressed Prachanda’s view that development of Nepal is not possible without Indian cooperation and a positive response from Indian PM Modi shows Indo- Nepal Relations are back on track. Nidhi, himself is a Madeshi assured to respect India’s concerns towards Madeshi problems.

Since 2014 the focus of Indian foreign policy is its neighborhood.  Even though in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, India’s foreign policy achieved notable success, Nepal remained as an exception since last year. Now once again with the leadership of Prachanda, there is an attempt to reestablish this prime relation. Prachanda will serve as the PM of Nepal for the next 9 months. After that Sher Bahaddur Deuba will succeed Prachanda according to the coalition compromises. Fortunately, even Sher Bahaddur Deuba expressed his views in favor of better indo- Nepal relations. These developments ignited a new hope in the relations of these two South Asian traditional partners.

 KEERTHIRAJ (krj492@gmail.com)

·   Currently serving as an Assistant Professor for International Relations and Political Science at Alliance University, Bangalore. 

      (This article was published in Central Chronicle newspaper on 3 September 2016)