Indo-US Partnership: A Panacea to Chinese Aggression?

Even though American allies in this region are economically sound, they are not in a position to counter China, compared to China's military and diplomatic power. For all these reasons, the focus of US foreign policy experts increasingly turning towards India, as a potential power ti counter Chinese dragon.

-  Keerthiraj

The increasing Chinese military influence in the Asia-Pacific region reaffirmed that no country in this region has enough will power to counter the warmongering dragon. China aggressively achieved enmity with all the countries in its neighbourhood, even challenged US and other major powers, creating a common feeling that no one can do any thing against China. Recently, Chinese leaders warned America to expect a full pledged war if Americans interfered in South and East China seas. Both America and India have their own interests in containing Chinese power. On the one hand, China's aggressive attitude is the question of leadership and strategic balance for America, on the other hand, India has some key national security threats from China.

American allies in the Asia-Pacific region including Philippines, Japan, Australia, Singapore and other countries concerned excessively towards Chinese aggression. Even though American allies in this region are economically sound, they are not in a position to counter China, compared to China's military and diplomatic power. For all these reasons, the focus of US foreign policy experts increasingly turning towards India, as a potential power ti counter Chinese dragon. American policy experts are convinced that, India is growing increasingly confident in international politics is the only available choice to re balance Asia-pacific. The two largest democracies in the world are ready to establish higher levels of diplomatic and military relations. The current national interests of India and America have a lot of similarities. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is slowly moving out of the Non-Aligned policy and exposing itself confidently in the global politics. Still, India is not completely comfortable with US, Delhi policy makers understood it is important to strengthen Washington-Delhi defence contracts in order to maintain the balance in Indo-pacific region.

United States changed its earlier gesture of supporting Pakistan and criticising India. The Indian Army crossed the line of Control and destroyed some terrorist bases in response to Pakistan's back support to terror activities in Indian land. After this incident Pakistan firmly expected America to condemn the act of India. But this expectation of Pakistan met with disillusionment and US just advised both the countries to settle the long term dispute. This is a significant shift of US policy in favour of India and it responded with a 'Politically Correct' statement! Through this incident US convincingly portrayed India instead of Pakistan as the priority of its foreign policy For decades, American the aid to Pakistan proved US can get nothing more than backstabbing by Pakistan. Now it is the time to realise historical values of nations are the pillars of long-standing political friendship and not the short-term selfish political opportunities

The challenge, India facing of today from China is different from the challenges of 1962. China threatened only northern borders of India In 1962 Indo-China war, but Chinese naval power was not so sophisticated. But today, China has a strong naval force, built up in a systematic manner. Strategically, China has occupied Gwadar port in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Chittagong in Bangladesh and other naval bases in an attempt to surround India. This Chinese tactic of surrounding India and making India vulnerable to attack from all the directions, is popularly known as 'String of Pearls Policy'! In addition to this China is trying to spread its sphere of influence in Indian Ocean, particularly areas, which are considered as India's traditional zone of influence. It is evident that China has supported Pakistan against India continuously. Thus, to counter this offensive neighbourhood, India is in a need of a strong friend like US. There has never been a greater need for mutual cooperation between the United States and India and it is going to be a well deserved  strategic relationship for both the countries.

Increasing relevance of India as an influential force in global politics, has become pretty digest for China. To divert the attention of India China is using Pakistan and creating tensions at the borders of India! China's stand over  over Arunachal Pradesh made Indo-China relations further complicated. India gave shelter to Dalai Lama, despite of China's opposition and other issues added to the tension. India is slowly coming out of 'diplomatic reservedness' and looks more confident than ever. It is not surprising, even if India planned a joint strategic plan with America against China. 

There are some limitations for full pledged diplomatic relations of the US and India. In the past, the differences of opinion between the US and India, as well as the Indian stand over some arrangements of international system, resulted in US sanctions imposed on India. Today, these sanctions are restricting American technology transfer to India and higher level of defence co-operation between these countries. US has to set right some of the paper works regarding this and this process has already begun to develop cooperation with India. As American foreign policy experts keen to develop diplomatic ties with India, Asia-Pacific geopolitics opened new opportunities to contain China and also sting Pakistan for its mischief.

(This article was published in Central Chronicle News paper on 18 January 2017)

      KEERTHIRAJ (prof.keerthiraj@gmail.com)

      

International Relations and Political Science

Alliance University, Bengaluru

NEPAL REGIME CHANGE: NEW HOPE IN INDO-NEPAL TIES

We can’t neglect the role of neighboring countries in the success of Indian foreign policy. Specially, a Nepali government more interested towards China, always be a prime danger for India’s regional interest and security.

-          Keerthiraj

(Assistant Professor in Alliance University)

The Himalayan country Nepal is once again going through political transition. Pushpa Kamal Dahal, popularly known as Prachanda was elected as the Prime Minister of Nepal, replacing Khadga Prasad Oli.  This is for the second time Prachanda will be serving as the Prime Minister of Nepal. A new ray of hope emerged in India- Nepal relations with this change in the politics of Nepali politics. Since last year, India and Nepal diplomatic relations has been in a state of confusion and decline. But newly elected Nepali PM Prachanda took some rational decisions to correct the mistakes of past and sent special envoys to India and China.

India and Nepal are more than just neighboring countries. They have much reason to remain as close allies and this is proved by history. Since decades, India’s concern and commitments towards Nepali defense elevated Indo-Nepal relations to higher levels. Of course Nepal is a landlocked country, but in a true sense it is Indian land locked country as it shares most of the boundaries with India. On the other hand, Himalayan mountain range including the great Mount Everest separates Nepal from China. Even during crises times India was there with Nepal like an elder brother. When Nepal suffered a continuous Maoist war since 1996, only Indian interference convinced Maoist party and other national parties to end the war with 12 points agreement in 2004. But everything went wrong when Nepal adopted a new constitution on 19th September 2015. Nepal government and the new constitution neglected the protests of Madeshi, Tharu and other ethnical communities living in border areas. India also raised serious concerns about these ethnic issues.

Madeshi community has a distinct cultural identity and it is clear that they are excluded by Nepali mainstream society. Madeshis’ hope about new constitution perished like a moth! Boundary lines of Madeshi provinces, citizenship problems of Madeshis left unaddressed.  New constitution of Nepal became deaf and dumb to the problems of Madeshi community. The supreme text of the nation remains silent regarding political and cultural hegemony of mainstream Nepali society over their own people living in border areas. Nepali political elites also sidelined the major demand of this oppressed community. Naturally India backed the movement of Madeshis and advised the government of Nepal to rectify the mistakes of new constitution. This moral responsibility of India was intentionally misinterpreted and misunderstood by Nepal leaders. Then Nepali Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Oli chose China for his first foreign visit, it became crystal clear that both symbolically and practically Nepal avoided India.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi openly condemned new Nepali constitution. And a series of statements by Indian Ministry of External affairs backed the opinion of Modi. Later days witnessed dark period of Indo-Nepal relations including an Indian blockade against Nepal, Chinese hold over Nepal etc. While unofficial Indian blockade against Nepal continued, Nepal faced an earthquake. During this natural disaster, again India extended helping hands to Nepal in the name of ‘Operation Maitri’.  Unfortunately, some considered this humanitarian effort by India as an attempt to establish hegemony in Nepal. Even Nepali government held the same view and disrespected moral interest of India.

Indian diplomats and strategy experts worried when a traditional ally of India continuously lurching towards China. We can’t neglect the role of neighboring countries in the success of Indian foreign policy. Specially, a Nepali government more interested towards China, always be a prime danger for India’s regional interest and security. No one can deny the possibility of China using Nepal to achieve domination in South Asia. We should remember China already has doors to South Asian politics through Pakistan. 2014 China (an observer in SAARC) tried to push its interest to be a permanent member state in SAARC through Nepal!

Recent political developments in Nepal removed Khadga Prasad Oli from power and established Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) as Prime Minister. Newly elected PM of Nepal sent Deputy PM Bimalendra Nidhi as a special envoy to India. This is tactical step taken by Prachanda to reestablish lost relations of India and Nepal. During his visit to India Nidhi expressed Prachanda’s view that development of Nepal is not possible without Indian cooperation and a positive response from Indian PM Modi shows Indo- Nepal Relations are back on track. Nidhi, himself is a Madeshi assured to respect India’s concerns towards Madeshi problems.

Since 2014 the focus of Indian foreign policy is its neighborhood.  Even though in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, India’s foreign policy achieved notable success, Nepal remained as an exception since last year. Now once again with the leadership of Prachanda, there is an attempt to reestablish this prime relation. Prachanda will serve as the PM of Nepal for the next 9 months. After that Sher Bahaddur Deuba will succeed Prachanda according to the coalition compromises. Fortunately, even Sher Bahaddur Deuba expressed his views in favor of better indo- Nepal relations. These developments ignited a new hope in the relations of these two South Asian traditional partners.

 KEERTHIRAJ (krj492@gmail.com)

·   Currently serving as an Assistant Professor for International Relations and Political Science at Alliance University, Bangalore. 

      (This article was published in Central Chronicle newspaper on 3 September 2016)

TERROR ATTACK AND LACK OF COORDINATION IN COUNTER TERRORISM

European Union created more or less border less Europe. Sarcastically, terror activities also went border less within European continent!

- Keerthiraj

Since independence India continuously raised concerns over terrorism at global level. But the self-proclaimed caretakers of world peace i.e. United States and European nations always considered India’s concern as a silly complaint! Unfortunately, terrorist activities happening in Indian soil were the funniest subject for global powers. Finally, United States realized What India experienced since decades, only when al-Qaeda hit the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001! After this incident numerous efforts taken place in the world to overcome terrorism, but rising terror threats proved counter terrorism is not a complete success. In each stage of history, world remembers one most infamous name among various terrorist organizations. Then Al-Qaeda, Now Islamic State!

Last week in Brussels attack, the Islamic State militants have killed more than thirty people and left some others with serious injuries. By doing this, Islamic State terrorists created fear and anxiety among Europeans. This is not the first terrorist attack in Europe and in fact Europeans have historical connections of Jihad and Crusades. Even in twentieth century, Madrid bomb attacks left 193 people dead in 2004, the London attacks in July 2005 damaged the lives of 52 people and a very recent Paris attack in November last year killed 130. European Union, with the membership of 28 European countries, earned the reputation of world’s most successful and effective regional organization. More or less borderless European nation-state systems, added to this privilege. Sarcastically, terror activities also went borderless within European continent!

After Brussels attack, Europe has seen a lot of changes. In Paris, French police arrested a man, suspecting his involvement in Paris attacks. Last Friday Belgian police detained a man linked with Brussels attack. German police also arrested two persons on the basis of their mobile messages. The rapid pace of police operations in the three countries, created a new stir in the war against Islamic State. There is no doubt about the efficiency of European police system. But a row of terrorist attacks on European continent since 15 years, proved lack of cooperation and coordination within European police system.

According to a report by Turkish authorities, Ibrahim el Bakraui one among the two suicide bombers responsible for Brussels attack, was detained and later deported by Turkey. Turkish authorities also collected information regarding the intension of Bakraui  to join Islamic state. Turkey shared intelligence report in this regard with Belgian police authorities. Shockingly, the whole of Belgian police system failed to make use of these details! It is very clear that European powers failed to coordinate anti-terrorist efforts. Not only in continental level, even within the country Europeans lacked integration and mutual trust between police and intelligence agencies. Current European defense system remembers how the lack of coordination between US internal and external intelligence forces i.e. FBI and CIA resulted 9/11 Al Qaeda attacks in 2001. But immediately after this incident, US realized its mistakes and genuinely tried to find a solution. The presence of mind showed by Americans is really a lesson in the way of Counter Terrorism. 

The Islamic State appears differently from other terrorist organizations. Before fighting against enemy we should know about enemy. World Counter terrorism considered Islamic state as a mere terrorist group. Counter terrorism against Islamic state will fail till we know what exactly Islamic state is? Lack of coordination among world powers is the main capital of the Islamic State. To find a solution to Islamic state terrorism world need to be coordinate their efforts. And importantly we should rule out the difference between good terrorism and bad terrorism.

 KEERTHIRAJ (krj492@gmail.com)

·   Currently serving as a Faculty for International Relations and Political Science at Alliance University, Bangalore. 

      (This article was published in Central Chronicle newspaper on 31 March 2016)