CHALLENGE OF HYBRID WARFARE IN ASIA

Hybrid warfare has seemingly emerged as a major issue of discussion in most of the contemporary conferences and research articles on global defence. The concept and the debate around hybrid war is not a new phenomena. But today with the development of hybrid technology, hybrid warfare is dominating the world conflicts. Hybrid war involves irregular wars, illegal ransom, cyber attacks, propaganda for subversion etc. Even international law will become a tool in hybrid battlefield. So it is clear that today's war doesn't give the good old picture of formal armies fighting in a particular battleground! Hackers, war propagandists, weapons smugglers, Religious heads are the indispensable parts of Hybrid war!  This new and dangerous development opened up new possibilities in conflict ridden areas. The way Russia handled Ukraine issue and Islamic State's fighting techniques in Syria are the best examples for hybrid war!

Analysts in international affairs warned Asia, the largest continent of the world, is witnessing hybrid warfare. Advanced studies provided proofs that Asia is already under the strong clutches of Hybrid warfare. Douglas Ollivent, a Senior National Securities Fellow opined conditions like Ethnic conflicts in Asia, border disputes, lack of rule of law are more than enough to create and foster hybrid war in Myanmar, Pakistan, Thailand and other Asian countries. Earlier only national militaries had the privilege to some warfare techniques. Shifting such major military capabilities,  to irregular combat groups including terrorists is also a significant feature of hybrid war! Mainstream military weapons like intercontinental ballistic missiles in the hands of terror groups is a threat to world peace.

Hybrid warfare in Asia and disturbed relations of India with neighbouring China and Pakistan are new challenges to Indian defence strategy. Terror outfits in Pakistan or China can use those techniques, once used by Russian backed terrorists or Hezbollah terrorists. China supported Naxal activities in Northeast India have enough space to turn itself into hybrid conflict. The fact that China is one of the leading powers in cyber and robotics technology made Indian security more vulnerable and insecure.

International law considers armed aggression crossing national boundaries as the center concept of war. Same logic will be applicable even in the case of identifying the aggressor. Hybrid war strategy bypasses all international laws because, there is no need to cross the borders to achieve subversion activities. For instance, China can train and arm pirate groups to create tensions in South China Sea. Pirates induced by China may attack ships and disturb trade routes. Finally China will increase the presence of Chinese forces based on the claim to control pirates. Increased Chinese presence, definitely result in unquietness in Asia. But China can defend it's intentions easily without restricting itself to the norms of international law! World has to agree that China achieved considerable amount of progress in cyber technology. China created a separate department to monitor cyber attacks and other related issues. In a shocking fact 'South China Sea' is the most targeted region in cyber attacks!

"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting." Says evergreen political strategist Sun Tzu. These words are really relevant in the reign of hybrid warfare specially in defending India. Since independence Indian defence forces tackled number of problems. But now a new phenomena of hybrid warfare questioning the defense of India. India should be ready to handle these new proxy wars and hybrid battlefield.

(This article was published in Central Chronicle Newsapaper on 4 March 2017)

      KEERTHIRAJ (prof.keerthiraj@gmail.com)

      

International Relations and Political Science

Alliance University, Bengaluru

CLEAR THREAT OF NUCLEAR TERRORISM

During inquiry Bashiruddin admitted that he met with Osama bin Laden and conduct negotiations to develop nuclear device! In 2004, a shocking truth revealed that Abdul Qadir Khan, father of Pakistan's nuclear technology sold the same to Libya, North Korea and Iran.

-          Keerthiraj

            If History is the story of wars, then Politics is nothing but the story of power management. Global politics is a chain of contradictions and conflicts.  Recently, even petty conflicts leaning towards Nuclear threat is not at all a good development. Nuclear threat is not a new development in world history.  In 1945, America became a Nuclear power with ‘Manhattan project' and its impact on Japan proved that world created its own destroyer. World powers tried to contain the spread of Nuclear weapons. Unfortunately all the attempts proved to be a failure.

            The fourth and last nuclear security summit took place in Washington in the first week of April. As expected nuclear terrorism became the prime concern of the world leaders. Today tens of thousands of nuclear weapons around the globe waiting for destruction. A small mistake is enough to burn the world without any discrimination! Decades ago, the Little Boy and Fat Man destroyed the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. But they are nothing if we compare the nuclear capacity of 2016. If the Cuban missile crisis brought the world to edge of extinction in 1962, we can imagine what will be the effect of today’s sophisticated nuclear devices.

           

All countries have their own kind of nuclear defence systems. There is no universal nuclear defence system to stop nuke proliferation to terror hands. A small mistake in any country's nuclear defence system can allow terrorists to access nuclear weapons. Recent statements by some terrorist organizations in favour of using nuclear weapons is a warning bell to World powers. Baghdadi’s Islamic State is slowly losing its influence in Iraq and Syria. In its desperate attempt to re-establish its influence, it may be provoked to purchase nuclear weapons. Recently a Belgian nuclear plant worker found dead and his security identity card stolen. Another source reported that two Belgian nuclear plant workers joined Islamic State. Shockingly, recently published Islamic state pamphlet announced terror groups are planning to acquire nuclear devices through bribing corrupt Pakistani officials!

            In January 2001, some nuclear scientists of Pakistan created UTN, a non-governmental organization under the chairmanship of Bashiruddin Mahmood (former head of Pakistan's Khushab plutonium reactor). Later in November 2001, Pakistan’s intelligence agency arrested the members of UTN, including Bashiruddin, under the direction of United States. During inquiry Bashiruddin admitted that he met with Osama bin Laden and conduct negotiations to develop nuclear device! In 2004, a shocking truth revealed that Abdul Qadir Khan, father of Pakistan's nuclear technology sold the same to Libya, North Korea and Iran. According to intelligence reports, al-Qaeda was also keen to have deal with Abdul Qadir Khan, but Khan rejected the demand. These incidents raised serious questions about the credibility of Pakistan regarding proliferation to nuclear technology.

            This is a known fact that Pakistan’s conventional defence is inferior to that of India. Statements of Pakistani leaders made it clear that Pakistan is already to use its ultimate weapon i.e. nuclear bomb to save its interests. Pakistan don’t have any voluntary cuts like India’s nuclear policy of ‘No First Use’. Hopefully, to date no country has showed the irresponsibility of transferring nuclear technology to the hands of terrorists. However, the current global politics is moving towards new dimensions of unexpected twists and turns. To ensure the safety of the world, world powers should be more serious about nuclear non-proliferation and it is the time to think about a ban over nuclear weapons, like biological and chemical weapons.

 KEERTHIRAJ (krj492@gmail.com)

·   Currently serving as a Faculty for International Relations and Political Science at Alliance University, Bangalore. 

      (This article was published in Central Chronicle newspaper on 5 May 2016)

NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM: A MEMOIR

For the first time Soviet Union challenged this monopoly by conducting successful nuclear test in 1949! After this Britain, France and China emerged as nuclear countries in a row.

- Keerthiraj

North Korea turned itself into a nuclear power in spite of UN tough sanctions. North Korean President Kim Jong-un's order to keep nuclear missiles ready to attack at any time rang the bell of danger! Despite breathless international condemnations the Kim regime has a tough stance on the world. There is little doubt that China’s back door support is the reason for President Kim’s belligerent attitude. On January 6 and February 7 North Korea tested banned ballistic missiles. With this development North Korea’s immediate enemy South Korea and Japan are worried about their national security. Some grave statements made by president Kim directly against United States of America turned North Korean nuclear issue more complex.

During 1945 US had the monopoly over nuclear devices. For the first time Soviet Union challenged this monopoly by conducting successful nuclear test in 1949! After this Britain, France and China emerged as nuclear countries in a row. Cuba's nuclear crisis of 1962 and increasing nuclear threat compelled the World Powers to take initiatives like Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1968.The purpose of these arrangements is to prevent proliferation or spread of nuclear technology to other countries and nuclear weapons should be safe in the hands of first five nuclear powers. Initially North Korea was a member of NPT and came out of the treaty in 2003.

South Korea, probable victim of North Korea's nuclear program followed the ‘Policy of Trustpolitik’, accordingly it relied on United States relied for its defense. But today South Korean leaders also interested to be a nuclear power against rising nuclear threat from North Korea. According to a recent survey conducted by the ASAN Institute, 54 percent of South Koreans voted in favor South Korea's nuclear program! Naturally, South Korea initiated talks with US to adopt Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD). China already opposed any kind of American intervention in the Korean peninsula. Now China is supporting North Korea only in backstage and possibly China can use this American intervention as an excuse to be the mainstream supporter of North Korea in the near future! The nuclear problem Korean peninsula is not limited to East Asian region, but provided a stage for two competing world powers. On the one hand America is struggling to retain its position as a global ‘Big brother’. On the other hand china is waiting for a small opportunity to spread its influence all over the world!

North Korea's overwhelming interest in nuclear devices has some obvious reasons. North Korea is not a super power country as it seems to be in Kim bluster speech. North Korean defense forces still rely on 1970s era techniques. It is easy and less cost effective to acquire a nuclear device than modernizing this outdated army! Even Kim believed Nuclear weapon can keep America out of the Korean peninsula. After aggressive US interference in Iraq and Libya, Kim felt more insecurity that North Korea will have the fate in near future. On March 2, UN Security Council unanimously adopted ‘Resolution 2270’ acknowledging that the embargo on North Korea, and restrictions imposed on trade, and other fields. Furthermore, strengthened the sanctions imposed in 2006. North Korea's provocative stance even after international boycott vindicates secret Chinese support to North Korea. Approximately 90% of North Korean trade links are with China. Thus 'Resolution 2270' will be successful only with honest implementation from Chinese side.

  

 KEERTHIRAJ (krj492@gmail.com)

·   Currently serving as a Faculty for International Relations and Political Science at Alliance University, Bangalore. 

      (This article was published in Central Chronicle on 13 March 2016)